Housed on the USask’s Global Institute for Water Security website, the latest data can be found here: https://water.usask.ca/covid-19
Here is some of the information available on the site:
- From April 1 to April 5, an 86 % increase in SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load in Saskatoon's wastewater was observed compared to the previous week(up to March 31).
- These recent increases in viral RNA load predicteda continued increase in the number of new cases in Saskatoon over seven to 10 days (after the sample collection date of April 5).
- Currently, an average of 50% of the viral RNA load in wastewater is contributed by the B.1.1.7 variant of concern, a 285% increase from the previous week's data (up to March 31). This suggests that this variant of concern, first detected in the U.K.,is spreading and will likely soon become the predominant one in Saskatoon.
- No testing of other variants was done, but methods for detecting other variants are under development. Samples have been sent tothe National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg for genomic sequencing.
- All data has been shared with Saskatchewan health authorities.
Data will be updated on the site every Monday by noon.
Viral wastewater surveillance is a leading indicator of impending surges in case numbers that precede increases in new positive cases by seven to 10 days. By gathering this information, the team and its partners are able to warn of upcoming increases in positive cases. Most people start shedding SARS-CoV-2 through their feces within 24 hours of being infected. This viral signal detected in wastewater helps provide population-level estimates of the rate of infection in a city.
This information has the potential to complement COVID-19 swab tests, which are limited because symptoms may not appear for up to five days after infection.
The project is led by USask researchers John Giesy (Toxicology Centre and Western College of Veterinary Medicine), Kerry McPhedran (College of Engineering), and Markus Brinkmann (School of Environment and Sustainability, Global Institute for Water Security, and Toxicology Centre). The team also includes toxicologist Paul Jones, program manager Yuwei Xie, engineering PhD student Mohsen Asadi, and Toxicology Centre research associates Femi Oloye and Jenna Cantin.
When interpreting these data, note that increases in the viral signal in the wastewater are roughly indicative of increases in new positive cases that can be expected in the following seven to 10 days after sample collection, and decreases are roughly indicative of likely decreases in new positive cases. It is important to note that the magnitude of these changes is not always proportional, i.e., a four-fold increase in the viral signal does not always equal a four-fold increase in case numbers; it should rather be seen as a gauge for the direction of change.
This research was initially funded through the USask-led Global Water Futures (GWF) program and was recently awarded funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada.